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https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/16/upshot/how-n

email&login=email&referringSource=articleShare How Not to Be Fooled by Odds Credit…Tomi Um By David Leonhardt • Oct. 15, 2014 o 43 Now that The Upshot puts odds of a Republican takeover of the Senate at 74 percent, we realize that many people will assume...