Project Risk Assessment (Individual project)
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Overview
What do you think of when you hear the word "Risk" – walking across a busy street, not using sunblock, drinking while driving, casino gambling? Certainly, because they all involve the possibility of loss (of one sort or another). Do you ever think of project management and risk? You should! Projects by their very nature are risky. According to a study of more than 10,000 projects, only 2.5% of companies completed 100% of their projects successfully (Andriole, 2020). The good news is that risks can be managed – wait for the crossing light, use SPF-100, call Uber, avoid Las Vegas. With projects, it works a bit differently.
According to PMI, risk is any uncertainty that, if it occurs, would have an effect on at least one project objective. That is a neat and tidy definition, but what about the management part? Again, there is good news – project managers can minimize, or eliminate risks on their projects. A research study of projects in businesses from various industries concluded the use of risk management leads to significantly more projects meeting their objectives (Hillson & Simon, 2020).
In reality, there is no "one size fits all" approach to risk management. Project complexity and size are important considerations in choosing the right risk management approach. A multi-year project using innovative technology would not use the same risk management methods as a project lasting a few months to install a conventional IT system in a small business. Look through textbooks on Risk Management and you will invariably see detailed and robust risk planning processes such as: Stakeholder analysis, Proprietary risk tool, RACI chart, Risk interviews, Quantitative risk analysis, Risk breakdown structure, Contingencies, and so on.
These processes are very appropriate for long-term, costly, and complex projects. The Class Project, however, is none of those. While every project should use risk management, not every project needs to use the same risk management processes. We will employ a risk management approach scaled to the short-term, low-cost, straightforward Class Project.
There are two parts to this assignment.
Part 1 – Risk Register in Excel
This part of the assignment deals with risk identification. As such, you should start coming up with a list of what might go wrong during Mamma Mia's project. You will perform a qualitative risk assessment. Using estimates of probability and impact for each risk, you will filter the risks so that the top risks are singled out for action.
Figure 1: A matrix for assessing risk priority
Project Risk Assessment (Individual project)
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This assignment does not include quantitative analysis, a numerical analysis of the effect of risks on project objectives. This is a costly technique, and therefore only used on large or high-risk projects. Risk Metalanguage Without using a structured approach risk definition, you could very well identify things that are not risks – like misgivings, issues, or concerns. In this assignment, you will build risk descriptions using risk metalanguage. This technique employs a particular sentence structure with three parts – "Due to cause, risk may occur, leading to effect." The three elements of a risk description are:
1. Cause (a definite fact) 2. Risk (an uncertain event or set of circumstances) 3. Effect (a direct impact on a project objective)
(Hillson & Simon, 2020) Example of a risk metalanguage statement: "Due to hardware shipping delays, the network installation may not start as planned, leading to schedule delays and added costs to the project." As you finish each risk description, record it in the risk register. Risk Responses You will choose a response strategy (avoid, mitigate, transfer, accept) for each item in your risk register. Note that the level of response you choose should correspond to the risk priority. For example, the most aggressive response strategies (avoid/mitigate) should be applied only to the highest priority risks, and only the lowest priority risks should be accepted (Hillson, 2009). Likewise, you only need to enter a response plan for the high-priority risks. Table 1 provides more details on risk responses.
Table 1: Risk Responses (Rowe, 2020)
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Risk Register Managing your risk information can be challenging unless you have a way to organize it. This is why a risk register is used for recording risks as they are identified. Each risk is captured with the same information, even though the specific content differs from one risk to another. Use the "Risk Register.xlsx" file to record your risks, filling in all 10 rows:
Risk Id: The risk identification number makes it easy to search the risk register.
Risk Name: This should be brief, 3 words or less, so that it fits well on the Risk Matrix.
Risk Description: A risk metalanguage statement describing cause, risk, and effect.
Impact: (effect on the project's cost, quality, or time) 1 = Very Low, 2 = Low, 3 = Medium, 4 = High, 5 = Very High.
Probability: (of occurrence) 1 = > 0% to < 20%* 2 = 20% to < 40% 3 = 40% to < 60% 4 = 60% to < 80% 5 = 80% to < 100%**
* If the probability is 0%, it is not a risk ** If the probability is 100%, it is no longer a risk because it is an actual problem.
Score: Impact * Probability
Response Strategy: Avoid, Transfer, Mitigate, Accept.
Response Plan: For high priority (red) risks only, add a brief description of how to implement the Response Strategy.
IMPORTANT: The submission file should be named as "LastnameFirstname" "Deliverable for" "Assignment Name", such as – MylastnameMyfirstname Risk Register for Project Risk Assessment.docx
Part 2 – Answers to Questions in Microsoft Word
When the risk register is completed, answer the following questions, and submit them as a Microsoft Word document. Some of these questions will require you to do external research. "Yes" or "No" answers with no explanations or discussions are not appropriate answers.
1. Compare and contrast qualitative risk assessment versus quantitative risk assessment.
2. Which risk(s) would be the most threatening to the success of your project, and why?
3. If your project could only tolerate a 5-day delay, which risk response plan(s) would be implemented? Remember that risk responses will affect cost, schedule and/or scope – so discuss what can you afford to do.
4. What would be the most expensive risk response plan? Explain in terms of time or schedule.
5. What benefit is gained from regularly updating a risk register?
6. Describe a probability impact matrix and the purpose it serves.
IMPORTANT: The submission file should be named as "LastnameFirstname" "Deliverable for" "Assignment Name", such as – MylastnameMyfirstname Questions for Project Risk Assessment.docx
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Formatting Your Questions Document
• Create an APA format title page that includes: The title of report (Questions for Project Risk Assessment), your name, Course and Section number and date (use assignment due date); do not include graphics or themes.
• No running header required for this document.
• The body of the paper should be double spaced (or 1.5"), not to exceed 5 pages.
• Answers should be formatted as normal sentences (no numbering, not a run-on sentence as part of the question, no indenting).
• Use 1" margins on all sides.
• Font should be 11-point Calibri, 11-point Arial, 10-point Lucida Sans Unicode, 12-point Times New Roman, 11-point Georgia, or 10-point Computer Modern.
• Font should remain consistent throughout the paper, i.e., not changing from one font to another.
• Use at least one external reference and one from the course content (from the class reading content, not the assignment instructions or case study itself) with APA formatted citation and reference. For information on general APA format and specifics related to citing from the class content, refer to Content → Course Resources → Writing Resources. Resources must not use Wikipedia, general information sites, blogs, or discussion groups.
• The list of References must be its own page at the end of the document and it must be in APA format, i.e., double spaced, .5" hanging indent. No more than 10% of the paper may be in the form of a direct citation from an external source. All in-text citations must appear in the References list and all entries in the References list must be used as in-text citations.
• Run Microsoft Word's grammar/spell checker; there should be no errors in grammar, verb tenses, pronouns, spelling, punctuation, first person usage, or contractions.
• Submit your paper as a Word document, or a document that can be read in Word.
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Grading Rubric
Criteria 90-100%
Far Above Standards
80-89%
Above Standards
70-79%
Meets Standards
60-69%
Below Standards
< 60%
Well Below Standards
Possible Points
Risk Register
Needed for filtering risks so that the high priority risks are singled out for action.
32-35 Points
Risk register has 10 entries, all risk descriptions use metalanguage. Every risk has impact, probability, and response strategy. Only low-priority risks use "Accept" strategy. All high-priority risks have a response plan.
28-31 Points
Risk register has 8-9 entries, most risk descriptions use metalanguage. Most risks have impact, probability, and response strategy. Most high-priority risks have a response plan.
25-27 Points
Risk register has 5-7 entries, many risk descriptions use metalanguage. Many risks have impact, probability, and response strategy. "Accept" strategy used for medium to high-priority risks. Some high-priority risks have a response plan.
21-24 Points
Risk register has 2-4 entries, few risk descriptions use metalanguage. Many risks missing impact, probability, and response strategy. Few high-priority risks have a response plan.
0-20 Points
Risk register has fewer than 2 entries, metalanguage not used in risk descriptions. Impact, probability, and response strategy are mostly missing.
35
Questions
Answers appropriately explain concepts (not yes/no).
27-30 Points
All questions answered with appropriate explanations.
24-26 Points
1-2 questions not answered or do not use appropriate explanations.
21-23 Points
3-4 questions not answered or do not use appropriate explanations.
18-20 Points
5-6 questions not answered or do not use appropriate explanations.
0-17 Points
Questions not answered or do not use appropriate explanations.
30
Research
Use at least 2 references from academically credible sources with APA formatted citation (in-text).
18-20 Points
Required references are incorporated, used effectively, and cited using APA style. References used are relevant and timely and contribute strongly to the analysis.
16-17 Points
Required references are relevant, and somewhat support the analysis. References are appropriately incorporated and cited using APA style.
14-15 Points
Only one reference is used and properly incorporated, and/or reference(s) lack correct APA style.
12-13 Points
A reference may be used, but is not properly incorporated or used, and/or is not effective or appropriate, and/or does not follow APA style for references and citations.
0-11 Points
No course content or external research incorporated, or reference listed is not cited within the text.
20
Format
Uses format provided. Includes Title Page and References Page.
14-15 Points
Well organized and easy to read. Very few or no errors in sentence structure, grammar, and spelling. Double-spaced, written in third person, and presented in a professional format.
12-13 Points
Effective organization. has few errors in sentence structure, grammar, and spelling. Double-spaced, written in third person, and presented in a professional format.
11 Points
Some organization. may have some errors in sentence structure, grammar, and spelling. Double spaced, and written in third person.
9-10 Points
Not well organized, and/or contains several errors in grammar and/or spelling, and/or is not double-spaced and written in third person.
0-8 Points
Extremely poorly written, has many errors in grammar and/or spelling, or does not convey the information required.
15
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References Andriole, S. (2020, December 1). Why No One Can Manage Projects, Especially Technology Projects.
Retrieved 2021, from Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveandriole/2020/12/01/why-
no-one-can-manage-projects-especially-technology-projects/?sh=265772922da2
Bissonette, M. (2016). Project Risk Management: A Practical Implementation Approach. Newtown
Square, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.: Project Management Institute. Retrieved from UMGC E-Book
Collection at https://sites.umgc.edu/library/index.cfm#ebooks
Dobson, M. S., & Dobson, D. S. (2012). Project Risk and Cost Analysis. U.S.A.: Amacom. Retrieved from
UMGC E-Book Collection at https://sites.umgc.edu/library/index.cfm#ebooks
Hillson, D. (2009). Managing Risk in Projects. Burlington, VT, U.S.A.: Gower Publishing Company.
Retrieved from UMGC E-Book Collection at https://sites.umgc.edu/library/index.cfm#ebooks
Hillson, D., & Simon, P. (2020). Practical Project Risk Management. (3rd). Oakland, CA, U.S.A.: Berrett-
Koehler Publishers, Inc. Retrieved from UMGC E-Book Collection at
https://sites.umgc.edu/library/index.cfm#ebooks
Rowe, S. (2020). Project Management for Small Projects. (Third). Oakland, CA, United States: Berrett-
Koehler Publishers, Inc. Retrieved from UMGC E-Book Collection at
https://sites.umgc.edu/library/index.cfm#ebooks
