1. What happened ?last time,? and set the stage for 2022: If you write about a House race, this means that the last election was in 2020. If you write about a Senate race then the last election was likely in 2016, either way you would be mentioning which candidate and therefore party won the last election. Was it a close race, was it a landslide? That being said, is there now an incumbent running for reelection, or is the seat wide open? Has one party been in control of the seat for a long time, or has the seat alternated between the two parties recently? Give all the details and party dynamics since it sets up what was ?at stake? in 2022.
2. Who are the candidates? If there is an incumbent, check out their official congressional sites, campaign sites & social media pages so that you can provide some background information on them. Likely by now there is at least one “challenger” from the opposition party, so for example Orlando Democrat Val Demings announced earlier this year she would challenge for Senator Rubio’s seat next year. Make sure to provide background info on the candidates likely to face off in the November 2022 general election (don’t be concerned with primary challengers). Now there may not be an incumbent for some states, but you can still in that case write about at least one declared Republican candidate and one declared Democratic candidate.
3. How did 2020 go in this state/district, and why? Did Joe Biden or Donald Trump “carry” this state or this house district you are writing about? Make sure to find evidence/results showing this info so you can not only report on this but provide the specific percentages in terms of the “margin” between Biden & Trump. That way you can also comment on how close it was, and speak to how that indicates how “red” or “blue” the state/district is currently leaning. Why in your view did Biden or Trump perform well in this state/district? See if you can find polling data or issues that the candidates may have used to win this state/district as a way to “back up” your opinion.
4. Use evidence you research to give a “prediction” of this November’s result. Treat this like if you absolutely had to make a prediction of whether you feel the incumbent candidate/party will retain the seat, and then back that analysis up with more information, like polling (especially approval ratings), analysis from articles & websites about whether 2022 looks like a “good idea” for Democrats or Republicans, or that the 2020 results suggest what will likely happen in November. All in all make it a judgment call based on information you can research and cite.
Again this needs to be at least 4 pages with at least 4 sources. Same format & APA rules as before
Essay #3 is due FRIDAY, April 15th by MIDNIGHT.
